Me:
I’d like to speculate about possible futures with you.
Let us assume that the capabilities of Large Language Models (like ChatGPT) continue to improve at the current rate, and let us further assume that in the near future, that these chatbots are given real-time access to the Internet.
Let us also assume the following to scope this conversation:
- The military do not actively use this technology in any war in the next 20 years
- The different AI projects do not develop into any god-like AGI.
- The death by paperclip scenario (and the like) is avoided.
I’m curious about implications in the following fields:
- Political implications in national scale
- Geopolitical implications on the global level
- Financial implications - How will this affect how we conduct business?
GPT-4:
Sure, let’s explore these possibilities.
Assuming that Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT continue to improve at their current rate, and given real-time access to the internet, the implications in the following fields could be:
Political implications in national scale:
With the ability to access vast amounts of data in real-time, LLMs could potentially have a significant impact on politics at the national level. For instance, LLMs could be used to analyze data from social media platforms and provide insights into public opinion and sentiment. This could be used to help politicians better understand their constituents and tailor their policies and messaging accordingly. LLMs could also be used to analyze news and other media sources, providing politicians with up-to-date information about events and issues. However, there is also a risk that LLMs could be used to manipulate public opinion, for example, by spreading false information or propaganda.
Geopolitical implications on the global level:
With real-time access to the internet, LLMs could have a significant impact on geopolitics. For example, they could be used to analyze global news sources and provide insights into international relations, which could help governments make more informed foreign policy decisions. Additionally, LLMs could be used to monitor social media platforms and provide early warning of potential conflicts or crises. However, there is also a risk that LLMs could be used to conduct cyberattacks or engage in other forms of digital warfare.
Financial implications - How will this affect how we conduct business?
With real-time access to the internet, LLMs could have a significant impact on how businesses conduct their operations. For example, LLMs could be used to analyze customer data and provide insights into consumer behavior, which could help businesses develop more effective marketing strategies. Additionally, LLMs could be used to monitor supply chains and identify potential disruptions or inefficiencies. However, there is also a risk that LLMs could be used to engage in insider trading or other forms of financial manipulation.
Overall, it is clear that the development and deployment of LLMs with real-time access to the internet could have significant implications across a range of fields. While there are undoubtedly risks and challenges associated with this technology, it also has the potential to offer many benefits, provided it is used in a responsible and ethical manner.
Me:
Cool. Let’s start with the political implications.
There’s a general consensus that empowered LLMs will affect the labour market in some way. Even if we avoid the worst-case scenarios, I’m betting that empowered LLMs will displace some labour. Since LLMs are really good at managing language, I think professions in that space will be affected most: Programmers, Lawyers, Copy-writers, Writers, and the like. If we add two other mediums which can be generated using language, I’d add Musicians and Visual artists to this list.
I’m curious if you can think of any other professions which might be affected by an empowered LLM?
(by the way, when I write “Empowered LLMs”, I’m thinking of chatbots like you which has instant and unfiltered access to the Internet).
GPT-4:
You’re right that the increased capabilities of empowered LLMs could potentially displace some jobs, particularly those that involve language processing and analysis. In addition to the professions you mentioned, such as programmers, lawyers, copywriters, writers, musicians, and visual artists, other professions that may be affected by empowered LLMs include:
Customer service representatives: With real-time access to the internet, empowered LLMs could be used to provide customer support and answer queries, potentially replacing human customer service representatives.
Translators and interpreters: Empowered LLMs could potentially be used to translate and interpret languages, which could have an impact on the demand for human translators and interpreters.
Journalists: Empowered LLMs could potentially be used to generate news articles and reports, which could displace human journalists and reporters.
Researchers: With real-time access to the internet, empowered LLMs could be used to assist researchers in analyzing large amounts of data and identifying trends, potentially reducing the need for human researchers.
Educators: Empowered LLMs could potentially be used to provide online education and training, potentially displacing human educators.
It’s worth noting that while empowered LLMs may displace some jobs, they may also create new jobs in areas such as AI programming, data analysis, and content creation for LLMs. Additionally, there may be jobs that require a human touch or interpersonal skills that cannot be easily replicated by LLMs.
Me:
Ah, yes of course. I would definitely include those professions as well. And yes! As has happened in the past, new technologies tend to create new professions.
The thing is, it normally takes time for new professions to emerge. In the meantime, many people will become - and stay - unemployed. Maybe not everyone - perhaps not even a majority - but enough people to affect the body politic.
I might sound like I’m deviating here, but bear with me:
In the last 15 years, we’ve seen the emergence of populist parties in most (all?) liberal democracies. Very generally speaking, these parties cater to, and are supported by:
- rural populations who feel ignored or disregarded by the politicians in cities,
- people without university degrees who feel that their problems are not considered or even understood by the elite,
- the traditional/religious communities who are alienated by the rapid change of moral norms
- and in broad terms, those who consider themselves “outside” the system, either willingly or not.
What happens when we add a sudden surge of unemployment among white-collar educated city dwellers to the mix?
These tend to be people who tend to vote somewhere in the Center-left spectrum (Liberal, Social Liberal, Green, Social democrat or Socialist).
Will we see more political parties who advocate radical change? Or will the existing ones tend to broaden their base?
I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this.
GPT-4:
You raise an interesting point. While the displacement of jobs by empowered LLMs may create new professions in the long run, there may be a period of transition during which some people may struggle to find work. This could potentially lead to economic and social unrest, particularly if large numbers of people are affected.
In terms of the political implications, the rise of populist parties in liberal democracies over the past decade or so has been driven by a range of factors, including economic inequality, cultural anxieties, and a sense of alienation from mainstream politics. The emergence of empowered LLMs and the displacement of certain professions could exacerbate these existing trends.
It’s possible that we could see a surge in support for radical or populist parties that advocate for more extreme solutions to the challenges posed by technological change and economic disruption. Alternatively, we could see existing political parties attempt to broaden their base by addressing the concerns of those who are affected by the displacement of jobs.
Ultimately, the political implications of empowered LLMs will depend on a range of factors, including the speed and scope of their adoption, the degree of disruption to the labor market, and the responses of political actors and institutions. It’s difficult to predict with certainty how these factors will play out, but it’s clear that the emergence of empowered LLMs will have significant implications for politics and society as a whole.
Me:
Thank you, perhaps we can move on to geopolitical implications; unless you have anything you’d like to add?
GPT-4:
No, let’s move on to the geopolitical implications. How do you think empowered LLMs could affect global politics and international relations?
Me:
Actually, I’d like to stay on topic a bit longer. What kind of radical change do you think would be advocated by these extreme parties? I’m envisioning some blend of ludditism and classic extreme left or extreme right ideologies. But perhaps there are other trends I haven’t thought of?
GTP-4:
It’s difficult to say with certainty what kind of radical change might be advocated by extreme parties in response to the displacement of jobs by empowered LLMs, but there are a few possibilities.
On the left, we could see the emergence of movements that call for a more expansive welfare state, with policies such as universal basic income, free education, and greater worker protections. These movements could also call for the nationalization of key industries, or the implementation of new regulations that restrict the use of LLMs in certain sectors.
On the right, we could see the emergence of movements that call for greater protectionism and restrictions on trade, in order to protect domestic industries and jobs. We could also see calls for stricter immigration policies, as some may blame foreign workers for the displacement of jobs. Some extreme right-wing movements might also advocate for a return to more traditional social norms, rejecting the changes brought about by technological progress.
In addition to these possibilities, we could also see the emergence of entirely new ideological movements that reject the basic tenets of liberal democracy, perhaps advocating for more authoritarian or even fascist forms of governance.
Again, it’s difficult to predict with certainty what kind of changes might be advocated by extreme parties in response to the displacement of jobs by empowered LLMs. However, it’s clear that the political and social consequences of technological progress will be a significant challenge for policymakers and societies in the years ahead.
Me:
Mm, I understand that it’s difficult to predict these kinds of things. Perhaps we could, for the sake of this discussion be a bit more specific. How do you think the political system of a country like, say, the Netherlands would be affected by the advent of an empowered LLM? I picked the Netherlands since it’s a relatively small country, with a large number of educated white-collar population.
GPT-4:
The Netherlands, like many other countries, would likely experience significant political and social changes as a result of the advent of empowered LLMs.
On the one hand, the Netherlands is a highly developed country with a skilled and educated workforce, and it’s likely that the country will be at the forefront of technological innovation in the years to come. However, as we’ve discussed earlier, there’s also the possibility that this technological progress could lead to the displacement of jobs, particularly in white-collar industries such as law, finance, and journalism.
If this displacement were to occur on a significant scale, it’s likely that there would be political consequences. As you mentioned earlier, populist movements have already emerged in many liberal democracies in recent years, and the Netherlands has not been immune to this trend. It’s possible that an increase in unemployment among the white-collar workforce could fuel support for populist parties and movements that advocate for protectionist or anti-globalist policies.
At the same time, the Netherlands is a country with a strong social welfare system, and it’s possible that the government could respond to the displacement of jobs by implementing new policies that provide support for affected workers. For example, the government could consider implementing a universal basic income, or investing in retraining programs to help workers transition to new industries.
Overall, it’s difficult to predict with certainty how the political system of the Netherlands would be affected by the advent of empowered LLMs. However, it’s clear that the country, like many others, will face significant challenges in the years ahead as it seeks to navigate the complex and rapidly changing landscape of technological progress.
Me:
Thanks, this is really interesting. Let’s move on to the next topic!
GPT-4:
Sure, let’s move on to the financial implications of empowered LLMs. What specifically would you like to discuss?