Number of Days Above 100°F
This side-by-side animation shows the difference between a lower carbon emissions future and a higher carbon emissions future.
Light yellow represents locations where the temperature exceeds 100°F fewer than 10 days per year. Dark red represents locations where the temperature exceeds 100°F more than 120 days per year.
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Summer Climate Shift
This animation illustrates how the summer climate of three states — Michigan, Illinois, and New Hampshire — would change by late this century if carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow.
The colors of the underlying map show the current annual average temperatures across the United States. The southward movement of the three states illustrates how dramatically climate would change.
The climate of Michigan by late this century might resemble that of Oklahoma today, while that of Illinois might come to resemble Texas today.
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Watch how Illinois' summer climate
could feel like southern Texas
by the end of the century.
Read more under the Summer Climate Shift tab on the right.
Play
2010
The moving state concept was developed by two of Climate Communication's Science Advisors, Don Wuebbles and Katharine Hayhoe and their colleagues. Their work was published in several peer-reviewed articles as well as in Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, the 2009 National Climate Assessment.
The climate shifts depicted are based on a suite of climate model projections under the SRES A1FI emissions pathway.
The biggest factor in determining future warming is the level of heat-trapping gases emitted by human activities. The two scenarios shown in these maps are the B1 (lower) and A2 (higher) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. None of these scenarios includes implementing policies to limit climate change. Rather, the differences among these scenarios are due to different assumptions about changes in population, rate of adoption of new technologies, economic growth, and other factors.
The scenarios shown are not best or worst case. In fact, continuation of current emissions rates would lead to even more warming than shown in the higher emissions case shown here (A2). There are also lower possible emissions paths than the B1 scenario shown here; they would involve sizable and sustained reductions in emissions beginning very soon.
These maps and related information are from Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, a report commissioned by the federal government during the George W. Bush administration, and approved by the 13 federal agencies that make up the U.S. Global Change Research Program.