Ultimate Lay Betting Summary

Kevin Will be conducting the 1 month review of this system

Ultimate Lay Betting

Ultimate Lay Betting comes as a 28 page PDF and isn’t filled with the usual filler stuff about how to place a lay bet on Betfair etc. Jason gives a brief introduction about himself, a brief history behind how Ultimate Lay Betting came about and then the guts of the system which is clearly broken down and the rationale behind using each criteria is explained along with example screen shots.

Jason explains that he wanted to produce a system that was easy to use, could be used by a lot of people, based on sound horse racing principles and had a high strike rate and although it is still early days I would have to say that I think he has achieved his aim. I have looked at and tried so many lay systems that I have lost count and almost everyone one of them has been rubbish. But I do think this could have long term prospects. Now I know a lot of readers of the blog may think this is just sales talk, but I hope the 1 month review proves me right.

Obviously I can’t give the criteria away but it does concentrate on certain Racing Post forecast favourites. Jason says that the selections can be found using either the Racing Post website or the Racing Post paper – no other source should be used. If you decide to use the Racing Post website you will have to subscribe to the basic package to gain access to the required information. Jason states that the process should take about 10 minutes – this really depends on the number of races/potential qualifiers and will certainly take a little longer when you first start but eventually should take around 10-15 minutes to complete. If you don’t want to spend the time finding the selections yourself (or subscribe to Racing Post website) you can sign up to get the selections emailed to you for a very reasonable £14.99 a month (a 14 day free trial is available once you have purchased the system); these arrive at approximately 9.30 each day and also include some Excel files containing the selections that can be imported into a spreadsheet that Jason provides (I haven’t used the import function yet, but will do at some point and report back). The email also includes selections for a bonus backing system that is also included with the ebook. I haven’t monitored any of the bonus selections to date so can’t vouch for their profitability.

Jason also provides past results from June 2007 and up to 26th July 2009 showed a profit of 448.83pts to level stakes, which is mighty impressive. However I should point out that this doesn’t include Betfair commission and is recorded to standard SP. Now Jason includes a section in the ebook explaining the pros and cons of using SP and anything else and whilst I am normally very anti the use of SP I do understand where Jason is coming from. I am disappointed that results are reported without taking Betfair commission off so I have adjusted Jason spreadsheets to give a more accurate picture of expected profits. Taking off 5% commission the profits reduce to 392.23pts and using estimated Betfair odds and taking off 5% commission the profits reduce even further to 272.84pts. But I would say that in reality the actual profits would have been somewhere in between and even taking the ‘worst case’ of 272.84pts profit it still produces a very respectable profit.

Jason says that all qualifiers should be layed and this is normally fine as it is looking at forecast favourites but while I’ve been getting used to the selection process it has had a winner at 12.00 Betfair SP (7/1 SP) and so it may be prudent to use a cut-off that you feel comfortable with. After some discussion with Jason and to maybe prove to myself his justification for quoting results at SP I will record results using the Betfair odds available at the time I receive his email, the Betfair odds available when I check his selections (normally between 11.00 and midday), Betfair SP and SP although all profit/loss will be recorded using Betfair SP. Some days I may well miss some of those prices, in which case I will just quote any that I do get along with Betfair SP and SP.

End of Month Summary for Jason Franklins’ “Ultimate Lay Betting” [Updated]

So what is Ultimate Lay Betting system all about? The system selects on average 2 to 3 horses each day in certain races that through a logical process it believes will lose the race. Although the horses aren’t always the favourite they do tend to be in the top 2 or 3 in the betting market and so odds/liability are normally quite small. As I said in my overview at the start of the trial I have lost count of the number of rubbish lay systems on the market and that I felt that this system did have some long term prospects. Whilst 1 month is a relatively short trial for a system I am glad to be able to report that the system lived up to my expectations.

Cumulative P/L = +24.52 points

During the trial there were 69 selections of which 56 lost giving a strike rate of 81.16%. The average odds of all selections was 5.19, but the average odds of winners (losing bets) was just 3.21. Although it had 2 runs of 2 winners and 1 run of 3 winners the most it lost was 6.25 points, which for a lay system is pretty impressive.

Having said that it isn’t all plain sailing as there are a couple of issues with the system. The first is that depending on what time you check for selections people may get different selections; I have emailed the author to suggest he removes the ambiguity, but I’ve had no response to that. The second is that there are no upper odds limit recommended and the odds of some selections drift a lot during the day and so depending on what time you place the bets you could be risking a large percentage of your bank; I can only suggest you set your own maximum odds that you feel comfortable with. They are my only complaints about the system, which at the end of the day are fairly minor. Most lay systems suffer from the potential to have different selections depending on what time you find your selection/place your bet.

During the trial I didn’t really cover the daily selection spreadsheet that Jason sends over if you subscribe to his selection service. This allows you to add today’s selections to a spreadsheet to keep track of all your bets. Jason provides clear instructions on how to do this and it works very well. As I mentioned during the trial unless you need to subscribe to the Racing Post for other reasons (such as use it for other systems or want to find selections the evening before the racing) I would seriously consider subscribing to Jason’s service. However if you do decide to subscribe to the Racing Post (or buy the Racing Post paper) the process to find selections is not very onerous or time consuming; it just requires that you look at a few pieces of information and should take no longer than 10 to 15 minutes most days and maybe 20 minutes on a Saturday/Bank Holiday.

[Update]

Since putting up my end of trial summary I have been contacted by Jason to clarify some of the things. Below are his comments as I think it shows a) that he is a genuine guy, b) that he knows what he’s talking about and c) that he’s trying to provide good customer service.

I don’t know if this may help, but I have been doing some analysis of two areas. The first is regarding cut-off points for prices, for which there is information below. Feel free to use it, or reword it, in your review. It may help your readers. The second is regarding your non-runners query. I am nearly finished with analysis on the data, and will forward it to you shortly.

For now, here are details of the first analysis, the price, and potential cut-off points.

Price Analysis

Price is really a very personal thing. For me, I am not bothered about price, because I am confident in the long term performance of the statistics. Of course there will be others who NEVER lay above, or below a certain price. It really does come down to you as an individual.

My suggestion to you is to analyse the data for yourself, and look to see just how well selections in certain price ranges perform. Once you have done that you will be able to decide for yourself just how confident you are in all areas of selections.

Let me give you an example.

If you look at all the selections that had an industry SP of 5/1 or greater, you will see the following statistics:-

Bets: 235

Wins: 225

Strike Rate: 95.7%

Profit: +163.50pts

Now obviously we know that the profit is giong to be less than shown above because Betfair SP is higher the industry SP. But if you place your bets earlier in the day, the price may have been considerably lower.

More to the point, there are only 10 losing bets out of 235, meaning that 4.3% of the time the bet is a successful lay. 3 of the unsuccessful lays were at 5/1 and 3 were at 11/2, leaving 4 losers at 6/1 or above.

So would you lay these selections, or leave them alone?